Generate Possible Explanations

Understanding the cause of a sudden increase in overdoses requires piecing together data from multiple sources. This process helps jurisdictions identify contributing factors and tailor a targeted, timely response. Use the following strategies to develop informed explanations about what’s driving an overdose anomaly.
1. Review Existing Records

Start with a thorough review of available records:

  • Emergency department and hospitalization data
  • Emergency medical services (EMS) run reports
  • Police incident reports

These records can reveal clusters, common symptoms, locations, or substances involved, providing early signals of a pattern.

2. Conduct Case Interviews

Interview individuals who:

  • Have survived a nonfatal overdose
  • Regularly use substances
  • Have witnessed an overdose

Ask about:

  • Changes in drug appearance or potency
  • Where and how substances were obtained
  • Polysubstance use
  • Naloxone use and response
  • Recent changes in drug supplier

Tip: Use trauma-informed interviewing practices and ensure participant confidentiality. Community-based organizations that serve people who use drugs may be helpful in facilitating trust and access.

3. Consider Laboratory Testing

Laboratory testing helps detect emerging drug threats and inform outbreak response. Two complementary approaches – biological specimen testing and drug product testing – provide critical intelligence about substances circulating in your jurisdiction. 

Testing of Nonfatal Overdoses (Bio surveillance) 

Note: Focus testing at the public health level, not clinical level, as results often don’t inform immediate treatment 

Want to know more about Biosurveillance? 

Email: od_lab_surveillance@cdc.gov 

Testing of Drug Products and Paraphernalia 

Drug product testing helps capture supply changes through analyzing substances submitted by people who use drugs within specific communities. 

  • Leverage existing OD2A toxicology testing of drug product and paraphernalia programs or explore participation opportunities 
  • Partner with community organizations and laboratories conducting drug checking 
  • Coordinate for safe collection and interpretation of drug product and paraphernalia samples 
  • Examples: JAMA xylazine detection | Philadelphia HAN | Chicago alert

Want to know more about OD2A drug product and paraphernalia testing? 

Email: od2altest@cdc.gov  

Postmortem Testing 

  • Work with ME/C offices to ensure comprehensive testing for all suspected overdose deaths 
  • Connect with ME/C offices with professional organizations like SOFT to align testing with current standards 

    Note: Postmortem testing should not be the primary method for initially detecting emerging threats. 

    Analyzing and Monitoring Data 

    • Integrate toxicology data from multiple sources (biological specimens, drug products, postmortem) 
    • Track changes over time in population-level toxicology results and drug product/paraphernalia testing to establish baseline patterns 
    • Analyze postmortem results to identify populations at increased risk from emerging and re-emerging drug threats 
    • Use historical patterns to inform alert thresholds and public health messaging

    Legal Considerations 

    Be aware of consent requirements, privacy protections, chain of custody protocols, and state/local regulations. Consult your health department’s legal counsel for specific guidance. 

    Want to know more about OD2A drug product and paraphernalia testing? 

    Email: ODSurveillance@cdc.gov  

    4. Interview Key Partners

    Partners offer frontline insights into emerging trends. Interview:

    • Persons who use drugs and people in recovery
    • Syringe services and harm reduction program staff
    • Law enforcement and first responders
    • Emergency department clinicians and EMS providers
    • Medical Examiners or Coroners
    • Drug treatment providers
    5. Conduct Site Visits

    Walkthroughs of areas experiencing high overdose rates can help clarify structural and environmental risks. During visits, assess:

    • Access to syringe service programs
    • Availability of treatment and behavioral health services
    • Housing availability
    • Public transportation options
    • Presence and engagement of community-based organizations
    • Location of naloxone and test strip distribution

    Use this information to inform response design and identify gaps in services.

    6. Develop a List of Hypothesized Causes and Risk Factors

    Based on your findings, develop a list of potential causes and risk factors, such as:

    • A change in the local drug supply (e.g., fentanyl contamination, counterfeit pills)
    • Increase in polysubstance use (e.g., stimulants and opioids)
    • Changes in prescribing practices or sudden treatment disruptions
    • Untreated mental health or substance use disorders
    • Structural or environmental changes (e.g., displacement, seasonal shifts)

    Resource Highlight: The Association of Public Health Laboratories’ Model Opioids Biosurveillance Strategy offers guidance for developing a sustainable drug biosurveillance program.

    7. Utilize Laboratory and Forensic Resources

    Use laboratory testing and forensic data to confirm drug composition and detect novel substances.

    These resources help confirm what’s circulating locally and how it compares to broader trends.

    Continue The Toolkit

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